A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
