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PHEVs produce almost five times greater global warming pollution than official figures indicate, as per a new analysis.

Widening Gap In Official and Actual Emissions

Statistics shows that PHEVs release just one-fifth lower CO₂ than traditional gas and diesel vehicles, according to analysis carried out by a advocacy group. This contrasts significantly with lab tests, which suggested a 75% reduction in emissions.

Researchers examined data from onboard energy use meters of eight hundred thousand vehicles registered in the EU between 2021 and 2023. The team found that actual CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than official figures, up from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Actual emissions are rising, while lab-reported emissions are decreasing,” stated a lead researcher involved in the study. “That discrepancy is growing and creates a significant issue. Consequently, PHEVs pollute almost as much as gasoline cars.”

Primary Factors Driving the Emissions Gap

Analysts linked most of the gap to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of miles driven in electric power compared to overall mileage. They found that only a quarter of travel was completed in electric mode, while lab assumptions suggested 84%.

Additionally, when operating in EV mode, pollution amounts were well above lab projections. That occurred because EV motors were insufficiently powerful enough to operate independently, leading to combustion motors using gasoline for nearly a third of the distance covered in electric mode.

Regulatory and Economic Consequences

According to calculations, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output enabled several large automaker companies to escape more than €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by falsely easing compliance with European Union average fleet CO₂ standards.

Furthermore, owners of PHEVs could spend about €500 more per year in operating costs than is assumed under lab tests.

“The strong statements that manufacturers often promote about their plug-in hybrid vehicles are clearly far from the mark,” commented a automotive analyst. “Consumers are being misled into believing that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the environment and cutting costs. In reality, PHEVs are little improved than standard gas and diesel vehicles in terms of fuel use, CO₂ emissions, and operating costs.”

Policy Discussion and Industry Pressure

Hybrid cars have recently been drawn back into policy debates as carmakers have lobbied the European Union to weaken CO₂ targets. A planned prohibition on new internal combustion vehicles in 2035 has faced intense pressure from the car industry and opposition from EU countries with large car manufacturing.

Several senior officials have suggested plug-in hybrids as a possible “flexibility” option to introduce in the regulation.

One external energy economics expert, who was unaffiliated with the study, called the analysis a “very useful addition” after a long period in which parts of the car industry claimed there was too little data to properly evaluate real-world emissions.

“The results show, without question, that the difference between lab and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is significantly greater than for gasoline or conventional vehicles,” they said. “Any policy changes regarding PHEVs should be made with extreme care and in the light of that data.”